The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna itself, Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. They work - they're owned by a Russian oligarch called Prigozhin, who's close to Putin. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. Russian opposition sourceMeduzareported on February 27 that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to sign one-year military contracts as privates and sergeants, as opposed to the traditional five-year contracts. The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away In reality, though there were real doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military prior to and during World War II, Russian military leaders were constrained by political purges, educational deficits, and linguistic barriers in the Soviet conscript soldiers. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. That information campaign centering on Russias openness to negotiations aimed to prompt Western officials to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms and likely contributed to the delay in the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives. Weapons manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops continued unspecified offensive actions in the western Donetsk Oblast direction. Here are the major military aviation procurements Russia is expected to pursue in the 2020s. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. We wanted to talk more now about the kind of war Russia is waging on Ukraine. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. [55], Russian forces continue to face severe difficulties in replenishing military equipment and ammunition. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. They are mercenaries. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. So I think we need to update laws of armed conflict, and we have to figure out - you know, international law without teeth is just ink on paper. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. Its been this way for much of February. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. Full speed into the obvious minefield. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. It'll be horrific. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Russian tank units, for instance, have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot. By For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military, said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. Please try again. [63]Video footage posted to social media on February 27 shows a group of mobilized Russian soldiers from the dissolved 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment requesting that Prigozhin help them serve in the Wagner Group rather than in traditional mobilized units. Want to write for Task & Purpose? It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. And it's puzzling because Putin is a - he's been a leader in modern warfare not in terms of it being morally good, but in, as you said earlier, hybrid war. The idea of an arms treaty between the two nations may be outdated. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. This is possible due to the new capabilities of surveillance drones and electronic warfare units to ferret out enemy positions without having to push as many human scouts into harm's way. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. Have they proved reliable in the past? Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. Convoys of tanks are rolling inhowever slowlyfrom the north, west, and south. They don't address non-state actors. It's certainly horrifying. As the resistance mounts and as the Russians offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shellingand, recently, bombingcities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destructions sake. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. What we consider before using anonymous sources. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is currently in a war of words with the Russian military, accusing it of not supplying his organization with ammunition. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. They have been updated through the decades. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Written By. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. Putin lauded the FSB for its direct participation in the war in non-standard field tasks such as protection of the Russian border and cracking down on terrorist activities, organized crime, corruption, and extremism. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are engaged in fierce fighting near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove). And the more Putin resorts to chaotic destructiveness, the more organized the defenses become. What are you thinking of? Russias War Time T-62 Tanks [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive. WebRussia held its annual Victory Day military parade in Moscow on Monday but canceled the air force flyby over what it said was bad weather. On Friday, he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the military's registration and enlistment offices have to be modernized, noting "certain problems, difficulties" in Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, per Russian news outlet Moscow 24. There are reasons to believe that the strength of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. I'm not talking to anybody on the streets. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. WebPutin hints that Russia's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. Copyright 2022 NPR. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. And so, as the Russian invaders met resistance, they didnt quite know what to do. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from officers trying to sell submarines to drug runners, to alcoholism in the field and fighter pilots who only flew their aircraft 10 to 20 hours annually culminating in the humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns in the Chechen separatist capital of Grozny. The Kremlin appears to be using Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a conduit to reengage with this information operation, likely in pursuit of negotiations on favorable terms to Russia and further delays in the Wests provision of critical weapons systems to Ukraine. You've written extensively about these groups. Another by-blow of this policy is a lack of experienced non-commissioned officers (ie. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. Who pays them? Militaries change in response to experience and material circumstances, and Russia's is no different. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Even in victorious campaigns in 1943-1945, it was typical for the Red Army to suffer higher casualties than its defeated foes. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. [52], Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization), Several Russian opposition news sourcesreported on February 28 that Armenian police detained Russian citizen Nikita Kamensky in Yerevan, Armenia for vandalism, ostensibly because Russian authorities added him to their wanted persons databasein December for allegedly painting anti-war slogans on Timiryazevskaya Metro Station, Moscow in July. And while the West was still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, Crimea was a fait accompli. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. Recently, Russian military spending has ranged between the equivalent of $50 and $60 billion per year less than 10% of the annual US defense budget. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images After four days of fighting, the [57]Russia reportedly loses 150 tanks a month in Ukraine while Russias sole tank production factory, UralVagonZavod, produces 20 tanks a month. The military-historical caricature is that Moscow relied on the sheer mass of bodies and heavy weapons to defeat qualitatively superior foes. Yes, in 1996 Chechnyan separatists managed to compel Russian troops to withdraw in the First Chechen War but were then brutally crushed four years later. We encountered an issue signing you up. [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. Russias military leadership, with Gen. Valery Gerasimov at the top, is far too centralized; lieutenants must ask him for permission even on small matters, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The Way Ahead: Three Defining Elements for Russia The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. Depends on which standards the word outdated is based. By Hollywood standards, its certainly mostly outdated, there are even personnel wearing 1 In part this is due to the valiant resistance of Ukraines army and civilian defense forces. as well as other partner offers and accept our. Russia opened its invasion with a page from the superpower playbook as written by the United States and its allies in the 1991 Gulf War. Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? And the Russians, mercenaries and the troll factory work hand in hand. And that is what Russia did in 2014 to sort of take Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. [40]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [41]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russias military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians. Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. And these mercenaries, which are not supposed to be there, move through it for victory. Send me updates about Slate special offers. I mean, I'm thinking of disinformation tactics. No tolerance of casualties.". Accuracy and availability may vary. [18]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [19]https://www.dw dot com/ru/lukasenko-pribyl-s-vizitom-v-kitaj/a-64846196. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. [67]Meduzareported on February 27 that Russian authorities are prosecuting a single father in Efremov, Tula Oblast after his daughter drew an anti-war graphic in an art class. 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